Connected TV advertising is ads on streaming services watched on a television. Two publishers size that U.S. market, and they do not publish the same number. This page separates estimates of spend that already happened from forecasts for 2026. It does not treat a forecast as a finished year.
No new observed full-year total for 2026 has been released. The latest primary updates are still forecasts: the IAB's July 14, 2026 Digital Video Ad Spend and Strategy Report, and eMarketer's revised U.S. forecast published August 21, 2026.
Forecasts and estimates, labeled
| Year | Figure | What it is |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $20.3 billion | Guideline estimate of U.S. connected TV ad spend in the IAB series. This is an estimate of spend, not a forecast. |
| 2024 | $23.6 billion | Guideline estimate of U.S. connected TV ad spend, about 16% above 2023. Estimate of spend, not a forecast. |
| 2025 | Not reprinted | The IAB report says social video overtook connected TV in spend during 2025, and that connected TV growth that year was about 12%. The 2025 dollar cell is not stated in a sentence in the report text, so this page does not print one. |
| 2026 | $29.3 billion | Forecast. IAB and Guideline project connected TV ad spending to grow 11% to $29.3 billion. MediaPost's July 14, 2026 account of the IAB report. Not a full-year observed total. |
| 2026 | $36.95 billion | Forecast, different definition. eMarketer, August 21, 2026, says U.S. connected TV ad spend "will" reach $36.95 billion in 2026. Not observed spend. |
Older sentences on this page treated eMarketer's $33.35 billion (2025) and $37.95 billion (2026) figures as the size of the market. Both were forecasts. The August 21, 2026 eMarketer article is the later forecast for 2026, at $36.95 billion. This page does not convert either forecast into an observed total.
What each source counts
The gap between $29.3 billion and $36.95 billion is a definition and a model, not two measurements of the same finished year.
IAB spend totals come from Guideline's billing and market estimates, published in the IAB Digital Video Ad Spend and Strategy Report (part one in May 2026, full report July 14, 2026). Guideline estimates are not a census of every advertiser.
The buyer survey in that same IAB report is a different dataset. MediaPost describes a survey of 360 media executives fielded by Advertiser Perceptions in February and March 2026. Those answers are opinions about buying. They are not the dollar totals in the table above.
eMarketer publishes its own forecast. The August 21, 2026 figure is wider than the IAB connected TV line. Do not average $29.3 billion and $36.95 billion into a third number.
The IAB report's own prose says connected TV is forecast to grow 11% in 2026, and that social video's 2026 growth is 13%. Social video passed connected TV in spend volume in 2025, and the report expects that lead to hold in 2026.
Where connected TV sits inside digital video
The IAB total for digital video adds three categories: connected TV, social video, and online video (video on websites and non-TV screens). Guideline's 2026 estimate for that combined market is $81.9 billion, up 11% from the prior year. The report says digital video will, for the first time, account for more than 60% of all TV and video ad spend in 2026. The chart marks that 2026 share at 61%, against 58% in 2025. The 2026 share is an estimate. The 2025 share is Guideline's figure for that year, also an estimate, not a census.
Inside the 2026 forecast, MediaPost's account of the IAB release gives:
Connected TV: $29.3 billion, up 11%. Forecast.
Social video: $31.9 billion, up 13%. Forecast.
Online video: $20.7 billion, up 10%. Forecast.
Connected TV is the smaller of the two video categories that run on a television-like buy versus social video, and it is still growing at a double-digit forecast rate. It is not the entire digital video market.
What this means for a small business
A national forecast is not your budget. The useful part for a local business is that streaming inventory can be bought without a national TV commitment, on a daily budget you set.
Adwave's published budget ladder, the same one on the pricing planner, opens channels at these daily amounts:
$30 a day: mobile web, mobile apps, and TV; YouTube and Demand Gen; Facebook and Instagram.
$35 a day: Reddit.
$67 a day: Google Search.
$91 a day: TikTok, as early access from Customize. It is not in the default live mix.
Those are product minimums for which channels can run, from current pricing. They are not a prediction of calls, jobs, or return. Unit prices for connected TV inventory are covered on average connected TV CPMs. This page does not restate a CPM, because a market-size forecast is not a price.
Common questions
How big is the connected TV ad market in 2026? There is no observed full-year total yet. The IAB forecast is $29.3 billion. eMarketer's August 21, 2026 forecast is $36.95 billion. Use the label that matches the source you are quoting.
Is $33 billion the current market? No. That figure was an earlier eMarketer forecast for 2025 ($33.35 billion in the older write-up), not a counted total and not the August 2026 forecast.
Did connected TV pass traditional TV? This page does not restate a crossover year. The sources checked for this update did not publish a new observed comparison of full-year connected TV spend versus full-year traditional TV spend.
Can a small business buy it? Yes. Adwave campaigns use a prepaid daily budget from $30. Google Search is not included at $30. It opens at $67 a day on the published ladder.
